Goldman Sachs Bullish on E-Commerce Forecast

Goldman Sachs Bullish on E-Commerce Forecast

July 23, 2020

Goldman Sachs analysts say e-commerce will grow by 19 percent annually for the next three years. This is up from the 16 percent annual growth forecasted earlier by the firm.

 

“This acceleration is being driven primarily by faster growth in the U.S., Western Europe, Brazil and most of APAC,” the report stated. “More broadly, we expect that retail will grow 1.4 percent in 2020 and 6.1 percent in 2021, with CAGR over the next 5 years of 4.8 percent. This implies e-commerce penetration will reach 22 percent by 2023, which compares with 19 percent in our prior estimates."

 

“We’ve seen an acceleration in innovation over the course of the crisis as companies have rolled out curbside pick-up programs, contactless checkout, personalized consignment deliveries, and retailers and marketplaces have adapted”

 

Overall, e-commerce levels were up more than 40 percent in May, this compares to just 16 percent of retail spending domestically in the first quarter of 2019, according to the firm. 

 

The research note pointed to the pandemic as a major accelerator of e-commerce as retailers have worked to improve customer experience and efficiency. As a result of enhancements, traditional retailers, such as Target, with historically strong brick-and-mortar operations, recently saw triple digit growth in e-commerce revenue. 

 

“At an enterprise level, we’ve seen an acceleration in innovation over the course of the crisis as companies have rolled out curbside pick-up programs, contactless checkout, personalized consignment deliveries, and retailers and marketplaces have adapted to reflect the shifting needs of consumers focused on the new essentials,” the firm said in the report.

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